Institutional Insights: JPMorgan Delta-One Flows & Positioning 05/02/25
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Flows & Positioning - Weekly Highlights
• DeepSeek-Related Flows: Following the DeepSeek-related selloff last Monday, Nasdaq futures experienced net buying flows on Monday and Tuesday, although they faced selling pressure later in the week. In the ETFs, there was a significant buy-the-dip momentum last Monday, with $4.3Bn inflows to QQQ and substantial inflows into leveraged Semis and NVDA single stock funds (SOXL +$1.3Bn, NVDL/NVDU +$1.1Bn); throughout the remainder of the week, QQQ witnessed considerable outflows that negated Monday’s inflows, while NVDL/NVDU gathered an additional $0.6Bn in inflows.
• Futures Flows: Last week, we noted substantial net buying (>1.5z) in FTSE Taiwan, UST 5y, Germany 10y, Gasoil, TTF Natgas, and Bitcoin futures, contrasted by large net selling (<-1.5z) observed in SMI, ASX 200, HSCEI, NIFTY, MSCI Singapore, and Canada 10y futures.
• CTAs: According to key momentum indicators, CTAs likely gradually decreased leverage week-over-week but continue to maintain long positions in US equities, along with long positions in European equities, albeit with mixed exposures in APAC. They likely reduced shorts in Euro rates week-over-week, maintaining shorts in US rates, long positions in Metals, and long positions in USD against global FX. Note that due to overnight fluctuations, the "Current" signals in this report are derived from futures prices as of late-morning ET today, rather than the usual Friday close.
• If prices remain stable over the upcoming week, CTA signals are anticipated to shift incrementally negative for SPX, MID, Bovespa, TPX, NKY, KOSPI, CSI 500, Heating Oil, Gasoil, Soybean, and Ethereum futures, while becoming incrementally positive for EAFE, VIX, JSE Top 40, BIST 30, HSI, HSCEI, FTSE China A50, UK 10y, Aluminum, Wheat, GBP, and JPY futures.
• CFTC Positioning: Asset managers increased their SPX long positions and continue to maintain elevated levels in UST futures, notably adding to UST 5y positions while cutting back on UST Ultra 10y holdings. Leveraged Funds remain short in US equity and fixed income futures, while augmenting their shorts in NDX and UST 10y. Managed Money reduced their long positions in WTI and Gasoline, while ramping up shorts in Wheat.
• ETF Flows: ETFs experienced below-average inflows into Equities ($11Bn, -0.3z) and Currency/Multi-asset ($0.4Bn, -0.6z), alongside above-average inflows into Fixed Income ($7.6n, 0.5z) and Commodities ($0.3Bn, 0.3z).
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!