SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 30/7/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~25 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6380/90
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6515 SUP 6335
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6430/40
DAILY RANGE RES 6462 SUP 6345
2 SIGMA RES 6520 SUP 6287
GAP LEVELS 6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 18.25
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - BALANCE 6440/6396
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE
LONG ON TEST/REJECT WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: MARKET FADE
FICC and Equities | 29 July 2025 |
S&P 500: Down 30bps, closing at 6,370 with $500m MOC to sell.
Nasdaq (NDX): Down 21bps, ending at 23,308.
Russell 2000 (R2K): Dropped 69bps, closing at 2,253.
Dow Jones: Declined 46bps, finishing at 44,632.
18.2 billion shares traded across all U.S. equity exchanges, surpassing the YTD daily average of 16.8 billion shares.
VIX: Up 632bps, closing at 15.98.
Crude Oil: Rose 377bps to $72.68 following comments from Trump dismissing concerns about Russian sanctions' impact on oil prices.
U.S. 10-Year Yield: Down 8bps, ending at 4.32%.
Gold: Increased 48bps to $3,382.
DXY (Dollar Index): Up 30bps, finishing at 98.93.
Bitcoin: Fell 11bps, closing at $117,350.
Stocks experienced a slow fade today, with cyclicals vs. defensives (GSPUCYDE) seeing their worst performance since early May, down 1.75%. The AI vs. "The Rest" thematic spread continued to widen, as AI stocks outperformed on earnings despite high expectations and elevated positioning, while internet and software names lagged in tactical returns.
Healthcare saw heightened activity, with hedge funds de-risking in key names. UNH’s FY25 guidance disappointed, and NVO issued a significant guidance cut. Meanwhile, SRPT surged as much as 40% after the FDA approved resuming gene therapy in select patients.
Activity levels on the trading floor were moderate, rated 5 out of 10. The floor ended +3.4% to buy, compared to the 20-day average of +39bps. Long-only funds were net buyers (+$2.5b), driven by demand across all sectors, particularly tech and discretionary. Hedge funds were slight net buyers, focusing on industrials and macro products while reducing positions in energy and financials.
In consumer stocks, NKE saw notable activity from multiple buyers ahead of Goldman Sachs hosting their CFO and IR later in the day.
AFTER HOURS:
- Starbucks (SBUX): Up 2% as top-line results met expectations. CEO claimed the turnaround is "ahead of schedule," though investors await clarification on the call, especially with North America comps still under pressure. Long-only funds appear more favorable, while hedge funds remain cautious (positioning rated 4/10, with short interest at July highs).
DERIVATIVES:
Flows remained mixed today. Clients continued positioning for further volatility compression through VIX puts and put spreads. As the market fluctuated, skew steepened in shorter-dated options, with investors adding hedges ahead of upcoming micro and macro data. SPX puts were actively traded, alongside large QQQ hedges rolled into next year.
Focus tomorrow will shift to the FOMC meeting and key earnings reports from META and MSFT. The straddle closed at ~0.57.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!